Equities went into a tailspin on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a mid-cycle rate hike in a bid to tame soaring inflation.
Wholesale price-based inflation rose to an eight-month high of 0.26 per cent in November, driven by a sharp jump in food prices, especially onion and vegetables. The WPI inflation was in the negative or deflationary zone for the past seven months since April and was at (-)0.52 per cent in October. The last positive WPI inflation was recorded in March at 1.41 per cent.
With the next review of the flexible inflation target (FIT) framework coming up soon, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said the current inflation target of 4 per cent with a +/-2 per cent tolerance band is appropriate for the next five years. The country adopted the FIT framework in 2016, and the next review of the inflation target is due before March 31, 2021. "The current numerical framework for defining price stability, i.e., an inflation target of 4 per cent with a +/-2 per cent tolerance band, is appropriate for the next five years," the RBI said in the Report on Currency and Finance (RCF) for the year 2020-21.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
At least five state-run banks on central bank's radar for lax credit appraisal
Inflation breached the upper end of the RBI's comfort level of 4 per cent plus-minus two percentage points.
The health of Indian banks continued to improve in 2021-22 with their balance sheet growing at double digits after a gap of seven years and their asset quality and capital position bettering, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its annual report on trend and progress of banking in India. At the same time, the banking regulator flagged the issue of slippages from restructured accounts. "Going forward, it is imperative that banks ensure due diligence and robust credit appraisal to limit credit risk," the report said.
India's forex reserves jumped by $2.97 billion to $619.07 billion for the week ended February 23, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $1.13 billion to $616.10 billion. For the week ending February 23, the foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, increased by $2.40 billion to $548.19 billion.
The reserves had jumped $2.03 billion to $277.38 billion in the previous week.
Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has said the central bank could lose control over money supply and inflation management if cryptocurrency is allowed in the country. Speaking at a webinar organised by the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and New York University (NYU) Stern School of Business, Rao also said India's case for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) may not be strong as there are capital controls. "Crypto is backed by algorithms and there is fear that the central bank might lose control over money supply and inflation management.
Among Sensex firms, HDFC Bank climbed more than 2 per cent. TCS, Maruti, Infosys, Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel were among the major gainers. State Bank of India, JSW Steel, ITC, Tata Motors, UltraTech Cement and Nestle were among the laggards.
An immediate RBI rate cut will lower lending rates for banks' MSME/retail/mortgage loans before the 'busy' industrial season ends in March.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, the focus will also be on foreign portfolio investors' trading activity, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for 'Mahavir Jayanti' and on Friday on account of 'Good Friday'.
In addition to interest rates, review the fine print for penalties and repayment terms, and select a reputable lender to avoid harsh recovery practices.
Gold reserves rose by $320 million to $31 billion.
In the first such collaboration for India, the country's flagship payments platform, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), and Singapore's PayNow payment system have launched a real-time cross-border payment linkage system. The linkage, which was launched by Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi and Singapore's PM Lee Hsien Loong on Tuesday, was kicked off by a live cross-border transaction between Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das and Monetary Authority of Singapore managing director Ravi Menon, using mobile phones.
The rising price of the precious metal has helped the central bank increase overall forex reserves despite currency reserves not rising, and sometimes even falling.
The number of frauds in the banking sector during the first half of the current financial year has increased substantially to 14,483 cases, although the amount involved is only 14.9 per cent of the previous year's amount, according to a RBI report. The report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23, underlined the need to protect the banking system and the payments system from the risks of fraud and data breaches emanating from cyber threats. As many as 14,483 frauds were reported involving an amount of Rs 2,642 crore in the first half of current financial year, as compared to 5,396 cases (Rs 17,685 crore) in the same period a year ago.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
The Reserve Bank of India has issued several warnings that the public should not fall prey to such unscrupulous activities and verify the companies offering loans online and through apps.
India has moved 100 metric tonnes of its gold stored in the UK to domestic vaults in FY24, sources said on Friday. This is one of the biggest movements of gold undertaken by the country since 1991, when pledging a substantial part of the gold holding to tide over a foreign exchange crisis resulted in its movement out of vaults. The country's overall gold holding increased 27.46 metric tonnes in FY24 and it stands at 822 metric tonnes, as per official data.
